Das Verbrauchervertrauen der Uni Michigan (1.Veröffentlichung für Oktober) ist mit 59,9 ausgefallen wie erwartet (Prognose 59,9; Vormonat war 58,6).
Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 65,6 (Vormonat war 58,9)
Die Konsumentenerwartung liegt bei 56,2 (Vormonat war 59,9)
Also aktuelle Lage ok, aber Erwartung sinkt – das liegt an der immer geringeren Sparquote der Amerikaner aufgrund der Inflation..
Inflationserwartungen:
1 Jahr: 5,0% (Prognose war 5,1%; Vormonat war 5,1%)
5-10 Jahre: 2,9% (Prognose war 2,9%; Vormonat war 2,8%)
Dazu Joanne Hsu, die die Umfrage verantwortet:
„Consumer sentiment confirmed the preliminary reading earlier this month, inching up just 1.3 index points from September. With sentiment sitting only 10 index points above the all-time low reached in June, the recent news of a slowdown in consumer spending in the third quarter comes as no surprise. This month, buying conditions for durables surged 23% on the basis of easing prices and supply constraints. However, year-ahead expected business conditions worsened 19%. These divergent patterns reflect substantial uncertainty over inflation, policy responses, and developments worldwide, and consumer views are consistent with a recession ahead in the economy. While lower-income consumers reported sizable gains in overall sentiment, consumers with considerable stock market and housing wealth exhibited notable declines in sentiment, weighed down by tumult in those markets. Given consumers‘ ongoing unease over the economy, most notably this month among higher-income consumers, any continued weakening in incomes or wealth could lead to further pullbacks in spending that would reinforce other risks of recession.
The median expected year-ahead inflation rate rose to 5.0%, with increases reported across age, income, and education. Last month, long run inflation expectations fell below the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for the first time since July 2021, but since then expectations have reverted to 2.9%. Uncertainty over inflation expectations remains elevated, indicating that inflation expectations are likely to remain unstable in the months ahead.“
Kommentare lesen und schreiben, hier klicken
