"Rezession innerhalb eines Jahres wahrscheinlich" US-Verbrauchervertrauen schwach – Erwartungen brechen ein, Rezession voraus

Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen (Conference Board-Daten für Februar) ist mit 102,9 deutlich schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose für heute war 108,5; Vormonat war 107,1, nun  jedoch auf 106,0 nach unten revidiert). Vort allem die Erwartungen der Konsumenten fallen weiter – und signalisieren damit eine nahende Rezession (siehe unten).

Dazu schreibt das Conference Board, das die Daten erhebt:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in February for the second consecutive month. The Index now stands at 102.9 (1985=100), down from 106.0 in January (a downward revision). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 152.8 (1985=100) from 151.1 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell further to 69.7 (1985=100) from a downwardly revised 76.0 in January. Notably, the Expectations Index has now fallen well below 80—the level which often signals a recession within the next year. It has been below this level for 11 of the last 12 months.

“Consumer confidence declined again in February. The decrease reflected large drops in confidence for households aged 35 to 54 and for households earning $35,000 or more,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board.

“While consumers’ view of current business conditions worsened in February, the Present Situation Index still ticked up slightly based on a more favorable view of the availability of jobs. In fact, the proportion of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ climbed to 52.0 percent—back to levels seen in the spring of last year. However, the outlook appears considerably more pessimistic when looking ahead. Expectations for where jobs, incomes, and business conditions are headed over the next six months all fell sharply in February.”

“And, while 12-month inflation expectations improved—falling to 6.3 percent from 6.7 percent last month—consumers may be showing early signs of pulling back spending in the face of high prices and rising interest rates. Fewer consumers are planning to purchase homes or autos and they also appear to be scaling back plans to buy major appliances. Vacation intentions also declined in February.”