US-Verbrauchervertrauen Uni Michigan besser, Inflationserwartungen rückläufig

Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen der Uni Michigan (1.Veröffentlichung für Juni), das stark beachtet wird wegen der Erwartungen der Konsumenten zur Inflation, ist mit 63,9 besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose 63,0; Vormonat war 63,5).

Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 68,0 (Prognose war 61,6; Vormonat war 64,9)

Die Konsumentenerwartung liegt bei 61,3 (Prognose 56,5; Vormonat war 55,4)

Erwartungen zur Inflation:
1 Jahr: 3,3% (erwartet war 3,7%; Vormonat 4,6 %)
5-10 Jahre: 3,0% (Vormonat 3,1 %)

Dazu Joanne Hsu, die die Umfrage verantwortet:

„Consumer sentiment lifted 8% in June, reaching its highest level in four months, reflecting greater optimism as inflation eased and policymakers resolved the debt ceiling crisis. The outlook over the economy surged 28% over the short run and 14% over the long run. Sentiment is now 28% above the historic low from a year ago and may be resuming its upward trajectory since then. As it stands, though, sentiment remains low by historical standards as income expectations softened. A majority of consumers still expect difficult times in the economy over the next year.

Year-ahead inflation expectations receded for the second consecutive month, falling to 3.3% in June from 4.2% in May. The current reading is the lowest since March 2021. In contrast, long-run inflation expectations were little changed from May at 3.0%, again staying within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 22 of the last 23 months. Long-run inflation expectations remained elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.“