Aktienmärkte jubeln - aber Rezession voraus! USA: JOLTs deutlich schwächer, Verbrauchervertrauen fällt stark

Neue Daten vom Arbeitsmarkt der USA: Die JOLTS (angebotene Stellen in den USA im Juli) liegen mit 8,827 Millionen deutlich unter der Erwartung (Prognose war 9,465 Millionen; Vormonat war 9,528 Millionen, nun auf 9,165 Millionen – also um 363.000 – massiv nach unten revidiert ).

Die JOLTs sind vor allem deshalb von Bedeutung, weil Fed-Chef Powell zur Begründung der Zinsanhebungen immer wieder auf die offenen Stellen und damit den robusten US-Arbeitsmarkt verwiesen hatte..

Marktreaktion: Dollar und Renditen tiefer, US-Aktienmärkte höher. In Kombination mit dem schwachen Verbrauchvertrauen könnte der Wall Street aber perspektivisch die Freude im Halse stecken bleiben – Rezession voraus!

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Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen (Conference Board-Daten für August) ist mit 106,0 deutlich schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose für heute war 116,0; Vormonat war 117,0, das war der höchste Stand seit Juli 2021).

Dazu schreibt das Conference Board:

„The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in August to 106.1 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 114.0 in July. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 144.8 (1985=100) from 153.0. The Expectations Index— based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to 80.2 (1985=100) in August, reversing July’s sharp uptick to 88.0. Expectations were a hair above 80—the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Although consumer fears of an impending recession continued to recede, we still anticipate one is likely before yearend.

“Consumer confidence fell in August 2023, erasing back-to-back increases in June and July,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “August’s disappointing headline number reflected dips in both the current conditions and expectations indexes. Write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups—and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000. Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”

Biden admin eco data revised lower in the past month:

Every payrolls month in 2023
Every new home sales report in 2023
Housing starts and permits
Industrial production

Almost as if there is a conspiracy to make the economy appear stronger then revise it quietly the next month

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 29, 2023