Soeben wurde die Einkaufsmanagerindex für die USA (S&P Global PMI; Februar) veröffentlicht – einer der besten Gradmesser für die Wirtschaft der USA:
Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: 47,8 (Prognose war 47,1; Vormonat war 46,9) – höchster Stand seit vier Monaten
Dienstleistung: 50,5 (Prognose war 47,2; Vormonat war 46,8) – höchster Stand seit acht Monaten
Gesamtindex: 50,2 (Vormonat war 46,8) – höchster Stand seit acht Monaten
Marktreaktion: Die Daten sind schlicht zu gut, dazu der Lohndruck (siehe unten) macht den US-Aktienmärkten zu schaffen, der Dollar stärker, die 10-jährige US-Rendite steigt auf 3,936%!
Dazu Chris Williamson, der Chefvolkswirt von S&P Global, das die Daten erhebt – Inflations-Reiber ist jetzt der Lohndruck, es droht Lohn-Preis-Spirale:
“February is seeing a welcome steadying of business activity after seven months of decline. Despite headwinds from higher interest rates and the cost of living squeeze, the business mood has brightened amid signs that inflation has peaked and recession risks have faded. At the same time, supply constraints have alleviated to the extent that delivery times for inputs into factories are improving at a rate not seen since 2009.
„However, there are some caveats to the good news. The upturn is being driven by the services sector, which in part reflects unseasonably warm weather, and although the manufacturing survey data are showing signs of improvement, the factory sector remains in contraction and focused on inventory reduction.
“Furthermore, the improved supply situation has taken price pressures out of manufacturing supply chains, but the survey data underscore how the upward driving force on inflation has now shifted to wages amid the tight labor market. By potentially stoking concerns over a wage price spiral, accelerating service sector price growth will add to calls for higher interest rates, which could in turn subdue the nascent expansion.“
United States Composite PMIhttps://t.co/hg0xT8OPY6 pic.twitter.com/UzWGWNKaPk
— Trading Economics (@tEconomics) February 21, 2023
Services PMI in the United States increased to 50.50 points in February from 46.80 points in January of 2023.https://t.co/j2GKlgAc8n pic.twitter.com/oNGl4PhaEd
— Trading Economics (@tEconomics) February 21, 2023
United States Manufacturing PMIhttps://t.co/C3JmGW8ZZr pic.twitter.com/lloellJqVG
— Trading Economics (@tEconomics) February 21, 2023
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