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Preise erstmals rückläufig Wirtschaft USA: ISM Index fällt siebten Monat in Folge

ISM Index Mai

Neue Zahlen zur Wirtschaft der USA: Der ISM Index (Gewerbe; Mai) ist mit 46,9 Punkten ausgefallen wie erwartet (Prognose war 47,0; Vormonat war 47,1). Das ist der siebte Monat in Folge mit Schrumpfung (alle Werte unter 50 bedeuten Kontraktion)

Die Komponenten:

– Beschäftigung 51,4 (Vormonat war 50,2)

– Neuaufträge 42,6 (Vormonat war 45,7)

– Preise 44,2 (Vormonat war 53,2, heute erwartet war 52,0 – alle Werte über 50 bedeuten steigende Preise!)

Marktreaktion: Die Preiskomponente erstmals seit Monaten rückläufig, daher die US-Indizes etwas höher..

Dazu schreibt ISM:

“The May Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than the 47.1 percent recorded in April. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a sixth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 42.6 percent, 3.1 percentage points lower than the figure of 45.7 percent recorded in April. The Production Index reading of 51.1 percent is a 2.2-percentage point increase compared to April’s figure of 48.9 percent. The Prices Index registered 44.2 percent, down 9 percentage points compared to the April figure of 53.2 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 37.5 percent, 5.6 percentage points lower than the April reading of 43.1 percent. The Employment Index indicated another month of expansion, registering 51.4 percent, up 1.2 percentage points from April’s reading of 50.2 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 43.5 percent is 1.1 percentage points lower than the 44.6 percent recorded in April; this is the index’s lowest reading since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index dropped 0.5 percentage point to 45.8 percent; the April reading was 46.3 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 50 percent is 0.2 percentage point higher than April’s figure of 49.8 percent. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.3 percent, 2.6 percentage points lower the 49.9 percent reported in April.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector shrank again, with the Manufacturing PMI® losing a bit of ground compared to the previous month, indicating a faster rate of contraction. The May composite index reading reflects companies continuing to manage outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period. However, there is clearly more business uncertainty in May. Demand eased again, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting at a faster rate, (2) New Export Orders Index slightly improving to 50 percent, (3) Customers’ Inventories Index persisting at the low end of ‘too high’ territory, a negative for future production and (4) Backlog of Orders Index dropping to a level not seen since the Great Recession. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was positive, with a combined 3.4-percentage point upward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index expanded for the second month (and at a faster rate) after two months of contraction, and the Production Index moved back into expansion territory. Regarding employment, panelists’ comments continue to indicate near equal levels of activity toward expanding and contracting head counts at their companies, amid mixed sentiment about when significant growth will return. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continue to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index dropped further into contraction as panelists’ companies manage inventories exposure. The Prices Index fell back into ‘decreasing’ territory (and in dramatic fashion) after one month of increasing prices. Manufacturing lead times clearly improved in the month.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only one — Transportation Equipment — registered growth in May.

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