Stagflation immer konkreter Wirtschaft USA: ISM-Index Gewerbe schwächer – Preise steigen weiter

Neue Zahlen zur Wirtschaft der USA: Der ISM Index (Gewerbe im Mai) ist mit 48,7 Punkten schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 49,8; Vormonat war 49,2).

Die Komponenten:

– Beschäftigung 51,1 (Vormonat war 48,6)

– Neuaufträge 45,4 (Vormonat war 49,1)

– Preise 57,0 (Vormonat war 60,9, heute erwartet war 60,0 – alle Werte über 50 bedeuten steigende Preise!)

Marktreaktion: US-Indizes schwankend, Renditen und Dollar tiefer. Die Headline-Zahl schwächer, so auch die Preise unter dder Erwartung, aber mit 57,0 immer noch weiter steigend. All das spricht für eine Stagflation! Die Preise steigen vor allem wegen den Rohstoffen (siehe unten)..

Dazu kommentiert ISM:

“U.S. manufacturing activity continued in contraction after growing in March, the first expansion for the sector since September 2022. Demand was soft again, output was stable, and inputs stayed accommodative. Demand slowing was reflected by the New Orders Index dropping deeper into contraction, supported by additional comments regarding ‘softening,’ New Export Orders Index edging back into marginal expansion, (3) Backlog of Orders Index regressing lower into contraction territory, and (4) Customers’ Inventories Index at the ‘just right’ level, neutral for future production. Output (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) advanced compared to April, with a combined 1.4-percentage point upward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. Panelists’ companies maintained production levels month over month, and head count reductions continued in May. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index was stable, and the Inventories Index was marginally lower compared to April. The Prices Index eased but remained in strong expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, as most commodity driven costs continue to climb but at weaker rates. Imports continued to grow, at a slower rate in May.

“Demand remains elusive as companies demonstrate an unwillingness to invest due to current monetary policy and other conditions. These investments include supplier order commitments, inventory building and capital expenditures. Production execution continued to expand but was essentially flat compared to the previous month. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving and shortages not as severe. Fifty-five percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in May, up from 34 percent in April. More importantly, the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 4 percent in May, the same as in April, but an indication of better health than the 27 percent recorded in January. Among the top six industries by contribution to manufacturing GDP in May, none had a PMI® at or below 45 percent,” says Fiore.“