Neue Zahlen zur Wirtschaft der USA: Der ISM Index (Gewerbe; Februar) ist mit 47,7 Punkten leicht schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 48,0; Vormonat war 47,4). Demnach schrumpft die Wirtschaft in den USA, das ist der fünfte Rückgang in Folge!
Die Komponenten:
– Beschäftigung 49,1 (Vormonat war 50,6)
– Neuaufträge 47,0 (Vormonat war 42,5)
– Preise 51,3 (Vormonat war 44,5, heute erwartet war 45,1 – alle Werte unter 50 bedeuten fallende Preise! Damit sind die Preise erstmals seit März 2022 wieder steigend).
Marktreaktion: wenig verändert Märkte, weil die Daten etwa der Erwartung entsprechen. Aber vor allem dier wieder gestiegenen Preise sollten nachdenklich machen!
Manufacturing PMI in the United States increased to 47.30 points in February from 46.90 points in January of 2023.https://t.co/C3JmGW8ZZr pic.twitter.com/Gxkje6TgH8
— Trading Economics (@tEconomics) March 1, 2023
“The February Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.7 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the 47.4 percent recorded in January. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a third month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. In the last two months, the Manufacturing PMI® has been at its lowest levels since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47 percent, 4.5 percentage points higher than the figure of 42.5 percent recorded in January. The Production Index reading of 47.3 percent is a 0.7-percentage point decrease compared to January’s figure of 48 percent. The Prices Index registered 51.3 percent, up 6.8 percentage points compared to the January figure of 44.5 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.1 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than the January reading of 43.4 percent. The Employment Index dropped into contraction territory, registering 49.1 percent, down 1.5 percentage points from January’s 50.6 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 45.2 percent is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 45.6 percent recorded in January; readings from the last three months are the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index registered 50.1 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than the January reading of 50.2 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 49.9 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than January’s figure of 49.4 percent. The Imports Index continued in contraction territory at 49.9 percent, 2.1 percentage points above the January reading of 47.8 percent.”
Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector again contracted, with the Manufacturing PMI® improving marginally over the previous month. With Business Survey Committee panelists reporting softening new order rates over the previous nine months, the February composite index reading reflects companies continuing to slow outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the second half of the year. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting at a slower rate, (2) New Export Orders Index still below 50 percent but continuing to improve, (3) Customers’ Inventories Index remaining at ‘too low’ levels, a positive for future production and (4) Backlog of Orders Index recovering for a third month but still in moderate contraction. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was negative, with a combined 2.2-percentage point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index returned to contraction after two months of expansion, and the Production Index logged a third month in contraction territory. Panelists’ companies continue to indicate that they will not substantially reduce head counts, as sentiment is positive about the second half of the year, though slightly less so compared to January. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continue to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index expanded at a slower rate as panelists’ companies manage their total supply chain inventories. The Prices Index jumped back into ‘increasing’ territory after four consecutive months below 50 percent, supporting agreement between buyers and sellers to place orders in the near term.
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