Die US-Verbraucherstimmung Uni Michigan (1.Veröffentlichung für März) ist mit 97,8 besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 95,5; Vormonat war 93,8).

Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 111,2 (Prognose war 111,0; Vormonat war 108,5)

Die Konjunkturerwatung liegt bei 89,2 (Prognose war 86,0; Vormonat war 84,4)

Dazu schreibt Richard Curtin, der die Umfrage verantwortet:

„The early March gain in sentiment was entirely due to households with incomes in the bottom two-thirds of the distribution, whose sentiment rose to 97.4 from 90.0 in February. Sentiment fell among households with incomes in the top third to 98.5 in early March from 101.7 in February. The difference that accounted for the divergence was how households evaluated their personal finances, as lower income households expressed much more positive assessments. The divergence was due to a monthly jump of one-percentage point in income expectations among middle and lower incomes compared to a change of just one-tenth of a percentage point among those with incomes in the top third. Rising income expectations were accompanied by lower expected year-ahead inflation rates, resulting in more favorable real income expectations (see the chart). Moreover, all income groups voiced more positive prospects for growth in the overall economy during the year ahead. Since households with incomes in the top third account for more than half of all consumer expenditures, cautious observers will conclude that the latest data are another indication that the end of the expansion is on the distant horizon. While that may well be true, the current level of consumer sentiment at 97.8 hardly indicates an emerging downturn; even among households with incomes in the top third, the Sentiment Index is 98.5, and 97.4 in the bottom two-thirds. The data indicate that real consumption will grow by 2.6% in 2019 and that the expansion will set a new record length by mid year.“

Von Andreas Faessler – Eigenes Werk, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=50681126

Die US-Industrieproduktion (Februar) ist mit +0,1% schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war +0,4%; Vormonat war -0,6%, nun auf -0,4% nach oben revidiert).

#UnitedStates Industrial Production month-on-month at 0.1% https://t.co/d2vCgluAuV pic.twitter.com/1aO7bHt1BZ

— Trading Economics (@tEconomics) March 15, 2019

Die US-Produktion des produzierenden Gewerbes ganz schwach, sie liegt bei -0,4% (Prognose war +0,3%; Vormonat war -0,9%, nun auf -0,5% nach oben revidiert).

Von Niklas Bildhauer (User gerolsteiner91) – Eigenes Werk, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=2202752

Der New York Empire State Index (März) ist mit 3,7 schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 10,10; Vormonat war 8,8).

#UnitedStates NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 3.70 https://t.co/OuXXb5tAs8 pic.twitter.com/U9G0t33mwl

— Trading Economics (@tEconomics) March 15, 2019

Sarkastischer Kommentar dazu:

US NY Fed Manufacturing (Mar): 3.7 (est 10, prev 8.8)
5 more misses and we have all time highs. https://t.co/i0xVKkMqUJ

— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) March 15, 2019

Empire Manufacturing Survey Slumps To 22-Month Lows https://t.co/HrXrOlgdG4

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 15, 2019

Dazu schreibt die New York Fed, die die Daten erhebt:

„Business activity grew only slightly in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell five points to 3.7. New orders increased only marginally, while shipments grew modestly. Delivery times and inventories held steady. Labor market indicators pointed to an increase in employment, but a small decline in hours worked. The prices paid index moved higher for the first time in four months, pointing to a pickup in input price increases, while the prices received index moved lower, indicating a slowing in selling price increases. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that firms remained fairly optimistic about future conditions.“

Foto: siddarth_hanumanthu; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/