Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen (Conference Board-Daten für März) ist mit 104,2 besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose für heute war 101,0; Vormonat war 102,9, nun jedoch auf 103,4 nach oben revidiert).
Dazu schreibt das Conference Board, das die Daten erhebt: Aktuelle Lage wird schwächer eingeschätzt als im Vormonat, während die Zukunftserwartung im Vergleich zum Vormnat gestiegen sind:
„The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased slightly in March to 104.2 (1985=100), up from 103.4 in February. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased to 151.1 (1985=100) from 153.0 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—ticked up to 73.0 (1985=100) from 70.4 in February (a slight upward revision). However, for 12 of the last 13 months—since February 2022—the Expectations Index has been below 80, the level which often signals a recession within the next year. The cutoff date for the survey was March 20th, about ten days after the bank failures in the United States.
“Driven by an uptick in expectations, consumer confidence improved somewhat in March, but remains below the average level seen in 2022 (104.5). The gain reflects an improved outlook for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board.
“While consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are slightly less optimistic about the current landscape. The share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ fell, while the share of those saying jobs are ‘not so plentiful’ rose. The latest results also reveal that their expectations of inflation over the next 12 months remains elevated—at 6.3 percent. Overall purchasing plans for appliances continued to soften while automobile purchases saw a slight increase.”
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