Konsumenten immer pessimistischer US-Verbrauchervertrauen schwach, Verkäufe neuer US-Häuser stark

Neue Daten zum Immobilienmarkt USA: Die Verkäufe neuer US-Häuser (New Homes Sales; März) sind mit +9,6% auf eine Jahresrate von 683.000 deutlich besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war +1,1% auf eine Jahresrate von 630.000; Vormonat war eine Jahresrate von 640.000, nun auf 623.000 nach unten revidert). Zum Vorjahresmonat ist das ein Rückgang von -3,4Prozent.

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Der Median-Preis für ein neues Haus beträgt 449,800 Dollar, der Durchschnittspreis liegt bei 562,400 Dollar (mehr dazu hier).

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Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen (Conference Board-Daten für April) ist mit 101,3 deutlich schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose für heute war 104,0).

Dazu schreibt das Conference Board, das die Daten erhebt:

„The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in April to 101.3 (1985=100), down from 104.0 in March. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 151.1 (1985=100) from 148.9 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 68.1 (1985=100) from 74.0. The Expectations Index has now remained below 80—the level associated with a recession within the next year—every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022. The survey was fielded from April 3—about three weeks after the bank failures in the United States—to April 19.

“While consumers’ relatively favorable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short-term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board. “Consumers became more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labor markets. Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term. April’s decline in consumer confidence reflects particular deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over.”

“Meanwhile, April’s results show consumer inflation expectations over the next 12 months remain essentially unchanged from March at 6.2 percent—although that level is down substantially from the peak of 7.9 percent reached last year, it is still elevated. Overall purchasing plans for homes, autos, appliances, and vacations all pulled back in April, a signal that consumers may be economizing amid growing pessimism.”