Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen der Uni Michigan (1.Veröffentlichung für September), das stark beachtet wird auch wegen der Erwartungen der Konsumenten zur Inflation, ist mit 67,7 schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose 69,1; Vormonat war 69,5).
Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 7, (Prognose war 75,3; Vormonat war 75,7)
Die Konsumentenerwartung liegt bei 6, (Prognose 66,0; Vormonat war 65,5)
Erwartungen zur Inflation:
1 Jahr: Von 3,5% jetzt auf 3,1%
5 Jahre: Von 2,9% jetzt auf 2,7%
Das ist durchaus überraschend angesichts der stark gestiegenen Energiepreise!
Dazu Joanne Hsu, die die Umfrage verantwortet:
„Consumer sentiment inched down a scant 1.8 index points this month and has been essentially flat for the past two months. At 67.7 points, sentiment is currently about 35% above the all-time historic low reached in June of 2022 but remains shy of the historical average reading of 86. Sentiment this month was characterized by divergent movements across index components and across demographic groups with little net change from last month. Notably, though, both short-run and long-run expectations for economic conditions improved modestly this month, though on net consumers remain relatively tentative about the trajectory of the economy. So far, few consumers mentioned the potential federal government shutdown, but if the shutdown comes to bear, consumer views on the economy will likely slide, as was the case just a few months ago when the debt ceiling neared a breach.
Throughout the survey, consumers have taken note of the stalling slowdown in inflation, but they do expect the slowdown to resume. Year-ahead inflation expectations moderated from 3.5% last month to 3.1% this month. The current reading is the lowest since March 2021 and is just above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations came in at 2.7%, falling below the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for only the second time in the last 26 months. In comparison, long-run inflation expectations ranged between 2.2 and 2.6% in the two years pre-pandemic.“
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