Neue Daten für die Wirtschaft der USA: soeben wurde der ISM-Einkaufsmanagerindex für Dienstleistungen für den Monat Oktober veröffentlicht:
Der Hauptindex liegt bei 51,8 und damit nierigeer als erwartet (Prognose war 53,0; Vormonat war 53,6).
Preise 58,6 (Vormonat war 58,9) – damit steigen die Preise zum Vormonat weiter (alle Werte über 50 signalisieren steigende Preise)
Auftragseingang 55,5 (Vormonat war 51,8)
Beschäftigung 50,2 (Vormonat war 53,4)
Geschäftsaktivität 54,1 (Vormonat 58,8)
Marktreaktion: Der Service-Sektor kühlt also weiter ab, nur die Preise steigen – das riecht nach Stagflation: US-Indizes zunächst höher, Renditen und Dollar wenig verändert. Nun aber könnten Sorgen um eine Rezession aufkommen – schlechte Nachrichten wären dann schlechte Nachrichten!
Zu den Daten schreibt ISM:
„Economic activity in the services sector expanded in October for the 10th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.8 percent, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 40 of the last 41 months, with the lone contraction in December 2022.
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In October, the Services PMI® registered 51.8 percent, 1.8 percentage points lower than September reading of 53.6 percent. The composite index indicated growth in October for the 10th consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 54.1 percent, a 4.7-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 58.8 percent in September. The New Orders Index expanded in October for the 10th consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 55.5 percent is 3.7 percentage points higher than the September reading of 51.8 percent.
“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 47.5 percent, 2.9 percentage points lower than the 50.4 percent recorded in September. The index returned to contraction territory, indicating that supplier delivery performance was ‘faster’ in contrast to the ‘slowing’ status from the previous month. In the last eight months, the average reading of 48 percent (with a low of 45.8 percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)
“The Prices Index registered 58.6 percent in October, a 0.3-percentage point decrease from the September reading of 58.9 percent. The Inventories Index returned to contraction in October, registering 49.5 percent, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points from September’s figure of 54.2 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (54.4 percent, down 0.4 percentage point from September’s reading of 54.8 percent) expanded for the sixth consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 50.9 percent, a 2.3-percentage point increase compared to the September reading of 48.6 percent.
“Twelve industries reported growth in October. The Services PMI®, by being above 50 percent for the 10th month after a single month of contraction and a prior 30-month period of expansion, continues to indicate sustained growth for the sector, though at a slower rate in October.
Nieves continues, “The services sector continues to slow, with decreases in the Business Activity and Employment indexes. Sentiment among Business Survey Committee respondents’ comments is mixed, with some optimistic about the current steady and stable business conditions and others concerned about such economic factors as inflation, interest rates and geopolitical events. Employment-related challenges are also prevalent, with comments about increasing labor costs, as well as shortages.”
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