Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen (Conference Board-Daten für März) ist mit 104,7 schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose für heute war 106,9; Vormonat war 106,7, nun auf 104,8 nach unten revidiert). Auffallend: die Erwartungen fallen, Anzeichen für Rezession?
Dazu schreibt das Conference Board:
„The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® was 104.7 (1985=100) in March, essentially unchanged from a downwardly revised 104.8 in February.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 151.0 (1985=100) in March from 147.6 in February. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 73.8 (1985=100), down from 76.3 last month. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals a forthcoming recession.
“Consumers’ assessment of the present situation improved in March, but they also became more pessimistic about the future,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Confidence rose among consumers aged 55 and over but deteriorated for those under 55. Separately, consumers in the $50,000-$99,999 income group reported lower confidence in March, while confidence improved slightly in all other income groups. However, over the last six months, confidence has been moving sideways with no real trend to the upside or downside either by income or age group.”
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