Neue Daten für die Wirtschaft der USA: soeben wurde der ISM-Einkaufsmanagerindex für Dienstleistungen für den Monat August veröffentlicht:
Der Hauptindex bei 54,5 und damit deutlich besser als erwartet (Prognose war 52,5; Vormonat war 52,7).
Preise 58,9 (Vormonat war 56,8) – damit steigen die Preise zum Vormonat verstärkt weiter (alle Werte über 50 signalisieren steigende Preise)
Auftragseingang 57,5 (Vormonat war 55,0)
Beschäftigung 54,7 (Vormonat war 50,7)
Geschäftsaktivität 57,3 (Vormonat 57,2; Vormonat war 59,2)
Marktreaktion: Die Headline-Zahl und alle Komponenten besser als erwartet, die Preise steigen noch stärker als im Vormonat! Good news is bad news für die Märkte: US-Indizes tiefer, der Dollar stärker, die Renditen steigen (10-jährige steigt auf 4,30%)
Zu den Daten schreibt ISM:
“In August, the Services PMI® registered 54.5 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than July’s reading of 52.7 percent. The composite index indicated growth in August for the eighth consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December, which was the first contraction since June 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 57.3 percent, a 0.2-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 57.1 percent in July. The New Orders Index expanded in August for the eighth consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 57.5 percent is 2.5 percentage points higher than the July reading of 55 percent.
“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 48.5 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 48.1 percent recorded in July. In the last six months, the average reading of 47.7 percent (with a low of 45.8 percent in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)
“The Prices Index was up 2.1 percentage points in August, to 58.9 percent. The Inventories Index expanded in August for the fourth consecutive month, after one month of contraction preceded by two months of growth and eight months of contraction from June 2022 to January 2023; the reading of 57.7 percent is up 7.3 percentage points from July’s figure of 50.4 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (61.5 percent, up 4.9 percentage points from July’s reading of 56.6 percent) expanded for the fourth consecutive month after one month of contraction preceded by four months of growth, with a four-month period of contraction from August to November 2022. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.8 percent, a 10.3-percentage point decrease compared to the July figure of 52.1 percent.
“Thirteen industries reported growth in August. The Services PMI®, by being above 50 percent for the eighth month after a single month of contraction and a prior 30-month period of expansion, continues to indicate sustained growth for the sector. The composite index has indicated expansion for all but three of the previous 162 months.”
Nieves continues, “There has been an increase in the rate of growth for the services sector, reflected by increases in all four subindexes that directly factor into the composite Services PMI® and faster supplier deliveries. Sentiment among Business Survey Committee respondents varies by industry; however, the majority of panelists are positive about business and economic conditions.”
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