Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen Uni Michigan ist mit 94,5 schwächer ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose war 97,1; wie im Vormonat). Das ist der schlechteste Wert seit der Wahl Donald Trumps!
Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage (Current Economic Conditions) liegt bei 109,6 (Prognose war 111,7; wie im Vormonat).
Die Konjunkturerwartungen (Index of Consumer Expectations) liegen bei 84,7 (Prognose war 87,7; wie im Vormonat).
Die Inflationserwartungen liegen bei 2,6% (Vormonat war 2,6%).
Dazu schreibt Richard Curtin, Chefvolkswirt der Umfrage:
„The modest early June drop of 2.6 points in the Sentiment Index masks a much larger decline since June 8th. Prior to that date the Sentiment Index had averaged 97.7, but since June 8th, the Index fell to 86.7, a decline of 11.0 points. While this break corresponds with James Comey’s testimony, only a few consumers spontaneously referred to him or his testimony when asked to explain their views. Importantly, the decline was observed across all political parties, but the loss in confidence among self-identified Republicans since June 8th was larger than among Democrats (9.2 vs. 6.8 Index-points), with Independents showing the greatest falloff (11.5 Index-points). The size of the partisan difference between Democrats and Republicans in the Expectations Index, however, was largely unchanged (55.6 Index-points prior to June 8th, and 51.2 after). The recent erosion of confidence was due to more negative perceptions of the proposed economic policies among Democrats and the reduced likelihood of passage of these policies among Republicans. Fortunately, a strong job market, improved household income and wealth have provided a financial buffer against rising uncertainties. Nonetheless, consumers have become less optimistic about the future course of the domestic economy. Even with the expected bounce back in spending in the current quarter, personal consumption is expected to advance by 2.3% for all of 2017.“
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