FMW-Redaktion
Die EZB hat soeben die aktuelle Rede von Mario Draghi vorab als Text veröffentlicht. Hier die wichtigsten Inhalte:
Im Dezember schaut man sich die Lage genauer an (in Klartext übersetzt). Klingt nach QE-Ausweitung!
Draghi gesteht (indirekt) ein, dass die Geldmarktpolitik (Nullzinspolitik) die Politiker in der Eurozone davon abhält Anstrengungen bzgl. struktureller Reformen zu unternehmen.
Die Inflation sollte „nicht zu hoch und nicht zu niedrig sein“.
Deflation kann genau so zerstörerisch für die Wirtschaft sein wie Inflation.
Er schiebt erneut dem niedrigen Ölpreis den schwarzen Peter für die niedrige Inflation in der Eurozone zu.
Die EZB ist willig und dazu fähig das QE auszuweiten.
Die Sorgen der deutschen Anleger wg. Nullzinsen sind unbegründet, da laut Bundesbank Kapitalrenditen seit 2008 für deutsche Anleger bei 1,5% p.a. im Schnitt lag (z.B. aus Aktien).
Die EZB kann sich nur um die Preisstabilität kümmern. Strukturreformen müssen aus der Politik der Mitgliedsländer kommen.
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Original-Auszüge der Draghi Rede:
Deflation
„Indeed, history shows that deflation can be just as damaging to the prosperity and stability of our economies as high inflation. To mention just some of the negative impacts, in a low inflation environment firms’ revenues fall but the wages they pay their employees are typically more “sticky”, so the real wages they have to pay rise. That can lead to higher unemployment. Monetary policy can also become less effective at supporting the economy, as lower inflation leads to higher real interest rates, which cannot be offset by conventional policy when interest rates reach zero. And in a situation of high indebtedness, too low inflation increases the burden of servicing that debt.“
QE (Anleihekaufprogramm)
„Those asset purchases are proceeding smoothly and continue to have a favourable impact on the cost and availability of credit for firms and households. But even though domestic demand remains resilient, concerns over growth prospects in emerging markets and other external factors are creating downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation. In this context, the degree of monetary policy accommodation will need to be re-examined at the Governing Council’s December meeting. The Governing Council is willing and able to act by using all the instruments available within its mandate if warranted in order to maintain an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation.“
Kapitalrenditen 1,5%…
„One concern is low interest rates unfairly punish savers. I fully understand this – low interest rates of course lead to low nominal returns on certain types of assets. But I think the extent of disquiet with the ECB about this issue also reflects some misunderstandings. There are two points in particular I would like to underline. First, what matters for savers is not nominal returns on liquid assets such as deposits, but real returns – i.e. what those returns actually buy – on the portfolios of assets that most households hold, which include for example shares. An interesting piece of research last month by our colleagues at the Bundesbank [1] showed that the real return since 2008 for German households on a typical private portfolio lay at 1.5%. This was lower than the pre-crisis average, to be sure, but better than in several repeated periods since the early 1990s. showed that the real return since 2008 for German households on a typical private portfolio lay at 1.5%. This was lower than the pre-crisis average, to be sure, but better than in several repeated periods since the early 1990s.“
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Quelle: EZB
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