Neben Ökonomen, Medien und Banken verkündet nun auch die OECD, dass die bisherigen Maßnahmen der Notenbanken (USA / Europa / Japan usw) gescheitert seien. In ihrem aktuellen Wirtschafts- und Finanzausblick schreibt die OECD die Geldpolitik der Notenbanken (Negativzinsen + Geldschwemme) habe ihre Grenzen des Machbaren erreicht – und das trotz der lockersten Geldpolitik „aller Zeiten“ jenseits der Zeiten der Hyperinflation, so sagte es der OECD-Direktor Adrian Blundell-Wignall. Dennoch habe sich die Produktivität nicht verbessert, die Wirtschaft (in den Industrienationen) wachse kaum. Besonders für Europa und China gelte, dass die Inflation nicht zurückkehre. Durch die niedrigen Zinsen würden viel eher Unternehmen unterstützt, die eh kaum oder gar nicht wettbewerbsfähig seien. Das haben wir doch schon mal irgendwo gehört… wie läuft das ab sofort in der Eurozone mit dem jetzt begonnenen Aufkauf von Unternehmensanleihen Herr Draghi? Laut OECD könnten diese Unternehmen viel leichter neue Schulden machen, und das Geld dann unproduktiv arbeiten lassen.
Die jetzige lockere Geldpolitik hat die Grenzen des Machbaren erreicht, so wohl die Kernaussage des OECD-Papiers! Hier im Original, wobei es nicht nur um Notenbanken geht:
Despite the fact that the interest rates have been kept at record lows since the financial crisis, the world economy is still beset with major headwinds. As a consequence, there is little doubt that the journey towards economic recovery increasingly has to rely on structural adjustments. Of particular importance is the ability of the corporate sector to adjust to the reversal of the commodity supercycle through a combination of orderly creative destruction and corporate strategies that promote productive investments. From a policy perspective, these challenges call for a better understanding of the relationships between business behaviour and macroeconomic conditions. Notably, how monetary regimes and regulatory reforms influence the decisions of both investors and corporations to focus on long term
This Scoreboard provides indicators that will help policy makers to monitor changes in Business behaviour that influence firm level performance and productivity. This includes indicators of how they use productivity enhancing strategies such as research and development, cash flow Management and corporate restructuring. It also contains indicators of how, and to what extent, corporations use market based finance, such as equity and corporate bonds. One important indicator of how effectively corporations use the capital that they have at their disposal is the return-on-equity. Building on a global sample of about 11.000 large listed companies, the Scoreboard shows that return-on-equity minus the cost-of-equity has fallen. In the last couple of years it has even been negative in emerging markets, which indicates the existence of excess capacity and the need for structural adjustments.
Access to equity capital is essential for long term investments, such as innovation and product development; particularly for smaller growth companies. However, the amount of new equity capital that corporations raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) declined in 2015. And while the number of IPOs by growth companies in advanced economies slightly increased, the total amount of new equity capital that they raised actually declined and remains at a low level. Considering the consistently low level of growth company IPOs in the last decade, more can probably be done to increase their access to public equity markets.
Bonds have become an increasingly important source of finance for corporations worldwide and the stock of outstanding corporate bonds continued to increase in 2015. At the same time, the Overall rating quality of corporate bonds remains considerably lower than before the 2008 financial crisis. This is mainly an effect of the high share of non-investment grade bonds and B-grade bonds being issued. The covenant protection index for non-investment grade corporate bonds also remains at a low level, indicating that investors in their search for yield are still willing to forego certain governance rights.
Analysis of firm level data in the OECD Business and Finance Outlook suggests that some companies with high productivity growth may use mergers and acquisitions to rationalise their businesses in a more competitive environment. Globally, the volume of corporate mergers and acquisitions grew by almost one third in 2015. The surge was fuelled mainly by domestic mergers and acquisitions in advanced economies, who account for almost three quarters of the value of all Mergers and acquisitions.
To develop their business, corporations may also take advantage of entering and expanding in overseas markets. While the global flow of foreign direct investments has remained fairly stable since the financial crisis, 2015 saw an increase of about 25%. This increase was fuelled mainly by an increased inflow to the European Union and the United States, while the People’s Republic of China experienced a small decrease in inward foreign direct investments. The OECD Business and Finance Outlook 2016 underlines the need to address the links between the regulatory framework, the macroeconomic environment and business behaviour. By innovative use of micro level data, this Scoreboard contributes to this effort and the shaping of coherent policies that will support productivity, sustainable growth and better lives for all.
Hier geht´s zum kompletten Wirtschafts- und Finanzausblick der OECD.
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