Hillary Clinton: Foto: Gage Skidmore/Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 3.0)
1. Krieg – Clinton als Kandidatin der „Kriegspartei“:
„The most likely trajectory for a Clinton regime, given her policies, advisors, and ideological inclinations, would be a strange mixture of the Barack Obama and George W. Bush presidencies. At home, Clinton would present as a liberal or even in some areas a progressive. Abroad, she would be a neoconservative.“
2. Boom des Aktienmarktes, weil Clinton die Politik der Fed unterstützt – im Gegensatz zu Trump:
„The equity markets want a Clinton victory. Not only would a Clinton victory represent a “status quo” mandate in terms of world trade and established mercantile norms, but there is also the issue of Trump’s repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve and chair Janet Yellen.“
3. Mehr Freihandelsabkommen:
„Clinton publicly opposes the Trans-Pacific partnership but nobody really believes her. Why would they? Clinton has long been an advocate of multilateral trade deals (such as the North American Free Trade Agreement established during her husband’s presidency), and appears to broadly support the sort of pro-globalisation, rising-tide sort of thinking that underpins such deals.“
4. Große US-Banken würden profitieren:
Sie steht Regularien wie Dodd-Franks sehr skeptisch gegenüber – wie zahlreiche ihrer Reden vor Banken beweisen, die durch wikileaks ans Licht kamen.
5. Schlecht für Pharmaindsutrie:
”the health care sector is in for a rough ride [under either Clinton or Trump] with increased scrutiny over drug prices and the runaway inflation in health care expenses that the US has experienced over the past three decades.”
6. Gut für den mexikanischen Peso – das ist selbsterklärend..
7. Gut für die Öl-Industrie:
„On September 7, Fortune reported that Hillary Clinton has raised “twice as much” from the oil industry as has Donald Trump. This is something of an anomaly, as the Republican Party has traditionally been the home of Big Oil, but this is a realignment election and there are few major industries that favour populist policies over neoliberal ones.“
8. Offene Hemisphere – also gleiche Chancen für alle:
Clinton told her audience that “my dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders[…] powering growth and opportunity for every person in the hemisphere.”
9. Schlecht für Produktionsjobs in den USA:
„this candidate is a free trader. How might US manufacturing jobs, for instance, do in a “hemispheric free market”?
10. Krise der amerikanischen Politik bzw. Legimtimitätskrise:
„Trump has spent October telling his voters that the system is rigged, that the polls are shifty, and that a corrupt establishment are attempting to pull a fast one in favour of Clinton. Last week, he told supporters that ‚I will totally accept the election results… if I win”.
1. Schlecht für mexikanischen Peso – logisch..
2. Scharfer Ruck nach rechts:
„It’s a no-brainer of course that much of Trump’s appeal has been based upon lowest-common-denominator nationalism and you hardly need to be a rocket scientist to expect a sharp move to the right in the US political spectrum that will have enormous repercussions on the international stage.“
3. Yellens Tage wären gezählt – das hat er oft genug klargemacht
4. Trump-Sieg würden Weg der eurokritischen Cinque Stelle-Bewegung in Italien ebnen – sprich die Ablösung Renzis:
„A Trump victory will feed the anti-establishment narrative and widen the door that says anything is possible. A Renzi loss would be like a domino affect after the Brexit and add yet more pressure on Brussels already trying to deal with one naughty boy in the corner.“
5. Polarisierung der Medien:
„Fox News as an example is notorious for plying a path that has much in common with the message that Trump promotes. There is little reason to suggest that this will change much in a Trump presidency and quite probably will become more extreme. And the logical extension of that process is the opposing view will become increasingly extreme too to keep up with the rhetoric.“
6. Ende der Verschwörungstheorie von den gefälschten Wahlen (rigged elections) – denn wenn Trump gewinnt, können sie aus seiner Sicht nicht gefälscht gewesen sein..
7. Ende des bipolaren Systems in den USA – also das Zwei-Parteiensystems:
„We’ve been here of course before with the likes of Ross Perot challenging the status quo only to see the reassertion of bipolarism in US politics to the Democrats or the Republicans. But this time, we really could see a move towards a third way develop given the distaste with which both the candidates are viewed.“
8. Annäherung der USA an Russland:
„Russia of course is an incredibly conservative bear (despite its bold foreign-policy moves of the last two years) and the unpredictability of a Trump presidency might not appeal to the Kremlin, but Trump’s pleas to Moscow to unveil more hacked messages related to the Clinton email saga and bromantic pronouncements on Putin seem to indicate that reconciliaton is his immediate aim. What that means for global politics is anyone’s guess.“
9. Öl-Preis würde durch die Decke schießen:
„If Trump does introduce a blanket ban on Muslims entering US territory, he will in one fell blow help swell the ranks of the anti-American forces and put Washington on a collision course that will be hard to pull out of.Given oil-price sensitivities to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, that could lead to spikes in the price that takes oil beyond its current cap at around $50/barrel to test much higher ground.“
10. Distanz zwischen Merkel und Theresa May – sprich zwischen deutscher und britischer Politik – würde größer..
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