In Russland sinkt der Leitzins. Die Zentralbank hat heute beschlossen ihn von 7,00% auf 6,50% zu senken. Allgemein war heute mit nur 25 Basispunkten gerechnet worden, es wurden aber 50. Denn, so die Zentralbank wortwörtlich, der Rückgang der Inflation in Russland übertreffe die Erwartungen! Die Inflationserwartungen würden weiterhin sinken. Entwickelt sich die Lage in den nächsten Wochen wie erwartet, werde man weitere Zinssenkungen prüfen, so die Zentralbank. Obwohl der Zins in Moskau also stärker sinkt als erwartet, wertet der Rubel aktuell gegen den Dollar auf. USDRUB fällt seit der Zinsentscheidung von 63,94 auf 63,68.
Zitat von der Zentralbank, auszugsweise aus der aktuellen Veröffentlichung:
On 25 October 2019, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to cut the key rate by 50 bp to 6.50% per annum. Inflation slowdown is overshooting the forecast. Inflation expectations continue to decrease. The Russian economy’s growth rate still remains subdued. Risks of a substantial global economic slowdown persist. Disinflationary risks exceed pro-inflationary risks over the short-term horizon. In these circumstances, the Bank of Russia has lowered its annual inflation forecast for 2019 from 4.0–4.5% to 3.2–3.7%. Given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will come in at 3.5–4.0% in 2020 and will remain close to 4% further on.
If the situation develops in line with the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia will consider the necessity of further key rate reduction at one of the upcoming Board of Directors’ meetings. In its key rate decision-making, the Bank of Russia will take into account actual and expected inflation dynamics relative to the target and economic developments over the forecast horizon, as well as risks posed by domestic and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets.
Inflation dynamics. Inflation slowdown is overshooting the forecast. Annual consumer price growth rate declined to 4.0% in September (from 4.3% in August 2019) and was close to 3.8% according to the estimate as of 21 October. September results show that annual core inflation also decreased to 4.0% as compared to 4.3% in August. According to the Bank of Russia’s estimates, inflation indicators reflecting the most sustainable price movements are close to or below 4%.
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