Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen (Conference Board-Daten für Juli) ist mit 117,0 deutlich besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose für heute war 111,8; Vormonat war 109,7, das war der höchste Stand seit Januar 2022). Damit steigt das Vertrauen auf den höchsten Stand seit Juli 2021.
Dazu schreibt das Conference Board, das die Daten erhebt:
„The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose again in July to 117.0 (1985=100), up from 110.1 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved to 160.0 (1985=100) from 155.3 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to 88.3 (1985=100) from 80.0 in June. Importantly, Expectations climbed well above 80—the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before yearend.
“Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000.”
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