Soeben wurde der Einkaufsmanagerindex für die USA (S&P Global PMI für Oktober) veröffentlicht – einer der besten Gradmesser für die Wirtschaft der USA:
Gesamtindex: 51,0 (Vormonat war 50,2) – ein Dreimonatshoch. Damit ist der Index wie im Vormonat über der wichtigen 50 Punkte-Schwelle. Alles darüber deutet auf Wirtschaftswachstum hin, alles drunter auf Schrumpfung.
Dienstleistungen: 50,9 (Prognose war 49,8 / Vormonat war 50,1)
Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: 50,0 (Prognose 49,5 / Vormonat war 49,8)
Dazu schreibt S&P Global, das die Daten erhoben hat: “Hopes of a soft landing for the US economy will be encouraged by the improved situation seen in October. The S&P Global PMI survey has been among the most downbeat economic indicators in recent months, so the
upturn in US output growth signalled at the start of the fourth quarter is good news. Future output expectations have also turned up despite rising geopolitical concerns and domestic political tensions, climbing to the jointhighest for nearly one-and-a-half years.
“Sentiment has improved in part due to hopes of interest rates having peaked, something which looks increasingly likely given the further cooling of inflationary pressures witnessed in October. In spite of higher oil prices, firms’ input cost inflation fell sharply to the lowest since October 2020, and average selling prices for goods and services posted the smallest monthly rise since June 2020.
“The survey’s selling price gauge is now close to its prepandemic long-run average and consistent with headline inflation dropping close to the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months, something which looks likely to be achieved without output falling into contraction. That said, the tensions in the Middle East pose downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation, adding fresh uncertainty to the outlook.”
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