Das US-Verbrauchervertrauen der Uni Michigan (1.Veröffentlichung für Juli), das stark beachtet wird wegen der Erwartungen der Konsumenten zur Inflation, ist mit 72,6 besser ausgefallen als erwartet (Prognose 65,5; Vormonat war 64,4).
Die Einschätzung der aktuellen Lage liegt bei 77,5 (Prognose war 70,4; Vormonat war 69)
Die Konsumentenerwartung liegt bei 69,4 (Prognose 61,8; Vormonat war 61,5)
Erwartungen zur Inflation:
1 Jahr: Von 3,3 % auf 3,4 % gestiegen
5 Jahre: Von 3,0 % auf 3,1 % gestiegen
Dazu Joanne Hsu, die die Umfrage verantwortet:
Consumer sentiment rose for the second straight month, soaring 13% above June and reaching its most favorable reading since September 2021. All components of the index improved considerably, led by a 19% surge in long-term business conditions and 16% increase in short-run business conditions. Overall, sentiment climbed for all demographic groups except for lower-income consumers. The sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets. As seen in the chart, sentiment is now about halfway between the all-time historic low of 50 from June 2022 and the February 2020 pre-pandemic reading of 101.
Year-ahead inflation expectations were little changed, inching up from 3.3% in June to 3.4% in July and down from the high point of 5.4% from April 2022. Long-run inflation expectations were also virtually unchanged from June at 3.1%, again staying within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 23 of the last 24 months.
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