Wirtschaft USA: Einkaufsmanagerindizes

Soeben wurde die Einkaufsmanagerindizes für die USA (S&P Global PMI; Juni) veröffentlicht – einer der besten Gradmesser für die US-Wirtschaft:

Verarbeitendes Gewerbe: 46,3 (Prognose war 48,5; Vormonat war 48,4) – damit ist der Sektor auch in den USA in der Rezession!

Dienstleistung: 54,1 (Prognose war 54,0; Vormonat war 54,9)

Gesamtindex: 53,0 (Prognose war 54,; Vormonat war 54,3)

Damit setzt sich der aus den heutigen Daten aus Deutschland und der Eurozone bereits erkennbare Trend fort: die Indusstrie schwach, aber das wird durch den starken Service-Sektor noch kaschiert. Aber es ist nur eine Frage der Zeit, bis die Schwäche der Industrie auch den Service-Sektor erfassen wird..

Marktreaktion: US-Märkte etwas tiefer, aber nicht viel, weil vor allem die Schwäche der Indsutrie nach den Daten aus Europa nicht überraschen kommt. Der Service-Sektor noch robust – hier sind die Treibkräfte der Inflation..

Dazu schreibt S&P Global:

„US companies signalled a further expansion of business activity at the end of the second quarter, although the rate of growth slowed to a three-month low. Manufacturers reported a renewed contraction in production while service providers saw a slower, but still solid, upturn in output. Jobs growth meanwhile sank to the slowest since January. Although higher wages added to firms’ costs, selling price inflation for goods and services hit a 32-month low.“

Und Chris Williamson. Chefvolkswirt von S&P Global kommentiert:

“The overall rate of expansion of business activity in the US remained robust in June, consistent with GDP rising at a rate of 1.7% to put second quarter growth in the region of 2%. “Growth remains dependent on service sector spending, however, with manufacturing slipping back into decline after three months of growth. While improving supply conditions had helped boost manufacturing production in prior months, an increasingly severe downturn in new orders mean factories are running out of work. “The situation is brighter in the service sector, where demand is proving resilient and the recent pause in rate hikes appears to have helped boost business optimism
for the year ahead.
“The question remains as to how resilient service sector growth can be in the face of the manufacturing decline and the lagged effect of prior rate hikes. Any further rate hikes will of course have a further dampening effect on this sector which is especially susceptible to changes in
borrowing costs. “The tightness of the labor market remains a concern, and upward wage pressure remains a key driver of higher costs in the service sector. However, it is encouraging to see the overall rate of selling price inflation for goods and services drop to the lowest since late 2020 in a sign that the Fed is winning its fight against inflation.“